The energy storage industry welcomes the positive, and the Ningde era, BYD, etc. accelerate the layout

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan, and the energy storage industry has ushered in heavy benefits. The agency believes that under the promotion of policies, the business model of new energy storage may be gradually constructed and mature in the future, and it is expected to usher in large-scale development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.


Application scenarios continue to enrich market demand to be released


Under the "dual carbon" vision, energy storage plays an important role in promoting the transformation of the energy structure to a low carbon in terms of regulating peak electricity consumption and improving electricity consumption efficiency. This time, the implementation plan issued by the two ministries and commissions clarifies the development goals and refines key tasks, specifically: by 2025, new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization; by 2030, new energy storage will be fully marketized. develop.


With the significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy power generation around the world, the development of new energy has created a demand for energy storage. The application scenarios of energy storage mainly include the power supply side, the user side and the grid side. The implementation plan released this time pointed out that since the "13th Five-Year Plan", my country's new energy storage has achieved substantial progress. Technological innovations such as electrochemical energy storage and compressed air energy storage have made great progress. By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage will exceed 4 million kilowatts. Application scenarios such as "new energy + energy storage", conventional thermal power storage, and smart microgrids continue to emerge. , the business model has been gradually expanded, the policy mechanism at the national and local levels has been continuously improved, and the supporting role for the energy transformation has initially appeared.


The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period and a window period for my country to achieve the carbon peaking goal, and it is also an important strategic opportunity period for the development of new energy storage. New energy storage is one of the breakthroughs for generating new formats of the energy industry and building a new economic engine, and there are major opportunities to accelerate the industrial layout. Guosheng Securities Research Report believes that this policy is a programmatic document for the development of new energy storage during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period following the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of New Energy Storage" last year. In terms of application fields, the power supply side is expected to become one of the main development directions; at the same time, the grid side and the user side are also expected to achieve accelerated growth, and it is expected to improve the grid-side energy storage price mechanism and the price mechanism to encourage the development of user-side energy storage.


Ping An Securities believes that under the promotion of policies, the business model of new energy storage is expected to gradually build and mature in the future, and will usher in large-scale development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. From the perspective of the global market, with the continuous enrichment of application scenarios and the gradual emergence of economy, the development of new energy storage will usher in a period of rapid development. CITIC Securities believes that according to the policy requirements and allocation and storage needs of different application scenarios, it is expected that from 2021 to 2025, the global energy storage market is expected to release a large amount of energy storage construction demand along with the energy transition and the rhythm of downstream power demand construction.


Huaan Securities believes that only from the demand side, in the context of accelerated grid integration of photovoltaic and wind power generation, a corresponding energy storage system is required to cope with the volatility of power generation; in addition, the demand for 5G base station construction also promotes the further increase in the demand for energy storage lithium batteries. It is comprehensively estimated that the newly installed capacity of global energy storage lithium battery is expected to reach 163Gwh (gigawatt hours) in 2025, and the CAGR (compound annual growth rate) from 2021 to 2025 is 41%.


The industrial chain is becoming more and more mature, and the listed companies are intensively deployed


As one of the popular concepts in the A-share market, energy storage is the layout direction favored by many listed companies. Since March, a number of listed companies have announced their layout plans. Yongtai Energy announced that it has signed cooperation agreements with Yangtze Power and Three Gorges Group, and plans to jointly invest in the construction of energy storage projects and other new energy projects in Henan Province. The joint venture company expects that by 2030, the total installed capacity of energy storage projects and other new energy projects under investment, construction, operation and management will reach 10 million kilowatts. Xinwangda also announced that the company's subsidiary plans to invest 8 billion yuan in Shifang City, and plans to build a 20Gwh power battery and energy storage battery production base. In addition, Tongli Risheng announced that the company plans to acquire a 33.76% stake in Tianqi Hongyuan by paying 240 million yuan in cash, and increase its capital by 250 million yuan in Tianqi Hongyuan. After the completion of the equity transfer and capital increase, the company will achieve rapid expansion in the field of new energy power stations and energy storage.


The energy storage industry chain covers the whole process of equipment, installation and operation, mainly including upstream equipment manufacturers, midstream system integration and installation, and downstream end customers. Energy storage batteries are one of the key areas for the layout of listed companies. According to the statistics of the Advanced Industrial Research Institute, the domestic energy storage battery shipments in 2021 will be 48Gwh, a year-on-year increase of 2.6 times. Judging from the shipments of major domestic companies, CATL, BYD, Zhongtian Energy Storage, and Narada Power occupy the top four. Among them, the two major manufacturers of energy storage lithium batteries, CATL and BYD, will both achieve rapid growth in related businesses in 2021. In addition to the above-mentioned companies, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Kestar, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other companies have also increased their investment in the energy storage track.


At the performance level, Wind data shows that as of press time, 21 companies in the energy storage concept stocks have released their 2021 performance forecasts. From the lower limit of the forecasted net profit year-on-year growth, 15 of them forecast positive growth in net profit, the highest increase. It is Shanshan Co., Ltd., which is expected to increase its net profit by more than 21 times year-on-year.


For the investment proposal of the energy storage industry, Guorong Securities analyzed and suggested to grasp the main line from three aspects: first, the power battery and the energy storage battery are of the same origin. The converter segment, which has a high cost share in the industrial chain, is expected to usher in rapid growth; third, the demand for overseas household energy storage is strong, and the global household energy storage leader deserves attention


Please feel free to give your inquiry in the form below. We will reply you in 24 hours.
Message